UK pay figures are more moderate than they appear at first glance.
Overall, regular wage growth remained at 7.8% quarter-on-year, which is no surprise. But if we drill down and exclude the public sector, private sector wages barely increased evenly between June and July. And if we look at alternative pay data which is based on payroll (or PAYE) figures, they actually fell on a level basis for the second month in a row.
It is true that we must treat all this with some caution. One month does not set a trend and the latest private sector regular wages figure, which is what the Bank of England is focusing on, was preceded by several bullish surprises in recent months.
But it comes with several signs that the labor market is cooling more noticeably.