Although the pace of price increases is beginning to slow somewhat in the near term, we expect food inflation to remain more volatile in the next decade than in the last. Global warming and extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts, extremely high temperatures, and short-duration heavy rains, make crop yields and quality much more volatile, temporarily increase production costs, and may cause disruptions to crops. agricultural supply chains.
Volatility has been further fueled in recent months when some countries declared export bans, due to a disappointing harvest, to curb rising domestic food prices. Morocco, for example, restricted tomato exports in February and India imposed restrictions on rice exports and a 40% export duty on onions. Although they can slow the rise in domestic prices, these export restrictions drive up prices even further in importing countries.
Spain is also particularly vulnerable to climate change. A recent United Nations report shows that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, warming 20% faster than the global average. In particular, coastal areas face increased risks from disasters, such as flooding and erosion, and the salinization of river deltas and aquifers makes food production more uncertain. In agriculture and food production, both climate change adaptation and mitigation measures will be needed, putting upward pressure on food prices.