We are looking forward to an intense and action-packed schedule in Hungary next week. The first batch of data will be released on Wednesday with industrial and retail performance for October. With the entry of new capacity in the export sector, we expect a monthly improvement. Thanks to the base effect, the year-on-year reading will be close to zero. Fuel prices are falling, supporting the recovery in retail sales. Disinflation will also improve food sales, while non-food retailers will continue to face a lack of demand. As a result, after a strong month-on-month performance, we see a marked improvement in the annual index, although there is still a long way to go for a full recovery.
Friday will bring us another series of important data. Firstly, both the headline inflation and core inflation figures will show the lack of repricing power and due to the base effect, both readings will fall by around 2 percentage points compared to the October figures. A good export performance in the industry will maintain the trade balance with a large surplus. Speaking of surpluses, November could also be a strong month for the budget, thanks to recent exceptional revenues from the sale of state stakes in some companies and early dividend payments from state utility MVM.