Regarding internal developments, there are currently no signs of an imminent recovery in production growth in sectors that produce for the domestic market in the short term. However, supporting a slightly better outlook towards the end of the year is that industrial companies could renegotiate their energy contracts at a much more favorable market price. This could result in a significant reduction in their costs, leading to a rebound in production in sectors that are now underperforming due to cost constraints.
Furthermore, as inflation moderates and the purchasing power of the national economy recovers towards the end of the year, industrial sectors that produce for the domestic market may receive some positive impetus not only on the supply side but also on the Of demand. This could offset a possible slowdown in industrial exports. Finally, we conclude on a positive note. Despite the August correction, the expected industrial performance in the third quarter should be significantly better than in the second quarter. Therefore, barring a nasty surprise in September, quarter-on-quarter growth in industrial production will remain in positive territory. In other words, the industry, together with agriculture, could help the Hungarian economy emerge from a technical recession in the third quarter of 2023.