Wage growth in November was 11.8% year-on-year, above consensus (11.2% year-on-year). This result was slightly weaker than in October (12.8% year-on-year) due, among other factors, to the lack of significant bonus payments. Wage growth in Poland’s business sector remains at double-digit levels and may remain so in 2024, given the country’s recovery, tight labor market and high increase in the minimum wage. With inflation stabilizing, this means fairly high real wage growth, which will be one of the main drivers of the rebound in consumption and economic growth next year.
Employment in November fell 0.2% year-on-year (in line with consensus and our forecast), following a 0.1% year-on-year drop in October. This is still a small drop, as companies are “hoarding jobs” during the slowdown. Surveys generally point to stronger hiring plans next year, so parting ways with employees now could be unwise.
Employment has been declining slightly for several months, but has remained remarkably resilient to the slowdown in the Polish economy and weakening external demand. Manufacturing industries, particularly furniture production, have fared worse this year. In this case, the main losses were probably due to Germany’s weaker economy and the deterioration of the domestic real estate market before government support for that market. There were also considerable losses in retail trade, probably related to weakness in private consumption during a period of high inflation. However, we will most likely see improvements in these areas in 2024.