Inflation in France stood at 4.9% in September, the same as in August, but still higher than in June and July. The increase in petroleum products is causing energy inflation to rise sharply again, reaching 11.5% year-on-year, compared to 6.8% in August. At the same time, food prices are slowing year-on-year (+9.6% vs. 11.2% in August), as are services (+2.8% vs. +3%) and manufactured goods (+2.9% vs. +3.1). % The last month). The harmonized index, important for the European Central Bank, rose 5.6% year-on-year in September, after 5.7%.
In general, these data confirm the conclusions of August. The trend towards disinflation is well underway in France, with a slowdown in the growth of prices for food, services and manufactured goods. However, the recent rise in oil prices means that the trend is less clear than expected and more gradual, and new inflation spikes caused by energy inflation cannot be ruled out in the coming months. Therefore, the disinflation process is likely to take longer than expected.
In its latest forecasts, published in September, the Banque de France predicts that inflation according to the harmonized index will return to 2.2% at the end of 2024 and 1.6% at the end of 2025, but it cannot be ruled out that we will have to wait longer to see inflation return to these levels. Given the evolution of energy prices, we expect 2.4% at the end of 2024 and 1.9% at the end of 2025.
