For the Reserve Bank of Australia, following the recent much lower-than-expected October inflation figures, there is surely no chance of the RBA raising rates again following its 25 basis point increase in the November target. types of cash. While we have probably already seen peak rates in Australia, there is still the possibility of a final rate increase at the end of the first quarter of 2024, when base effects could make it difficult for inflation to continue declining unless the monthly rate moderates by a a lot by then.
After 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter, we believe Australia’s growth will moderate to 0.3% in the third quarter, which is consistent with a 1.2% year-on-year growth rate but a bit stronger than the consensus opinion. Net exports will likely be a drag on growth this quarter, although that may be partly offset by higher inventory builds.
Private investment is likely to post a modest growth rate and construction has also been quite good. Meanwhile, consumer spending – which has been slowing fairly consistently – may be a little stronger than expected following some positive retail sales in the third quarter.